The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) California has released its latest Main Street Minute, providing updates on state and federal developments relevant to small business owners.
The NFIB California team noted the ongoing fiscal challenges facing the state, referencing a recent Legislative Analyst’s Overview of the Governor’s Budget. The summary states: “The administration projects the budget faces a roughly $3 billion deficit. This is lower than our November Fiscal Outlook estimate of an $18 billion deficit, for two offsetting reasons. First, and most importantly, the administration’s revenue estimate is considerably higher than ours because it does not incorporate the strong risk of a stock market downturn. Second, however, these higher revenues are offset by higher spending under the administration’s assumptions and estimates.
“Several historically reliable signs suggest the stock market is overheated and at high risk of reversing course into a downturn in the next year or so. Should a stock market downturn occur, income tax revenues would fall considerably. These risks are severe enough that not incorporating them into this year’s budget, as the Governor proposes, would put the state on precarious footing. Further amplifying this precariousness, even under the administration’s more optimistic revenues, the budget is only roughly balanced in the near term.
“Both our office and the administration expect the state to face multiyear deficits, with estimates ranging from $20 billion to $35 billion annually. These deficits are concerning for three reasons. First, after four years of projected deficits and a cumulative total of $125 billion in budget problems solved so far, the state’s negative fiscal situation is now chronic. Second, structural deficits have grown—our November outlook is the most negative forecast of the budget’s position since the pandemic. Finally, deficits have persisted even as the state’s economy and revenues have grown, underscoring that the problem is structural rather than cyclical. Taken together, these trends raise serious concerns about the state’s fiscal sustainability.”
On upcoming ballot initiatives for 2026 elections in California, Tom Ross and Tino Rossi of Swing Strategies reported: “A flurry of initiatives were filed in late 2025, and the race to collect enough valid signatures is well underway. Campaigns must gather 546,651 signatures for a statutory initiative and 874,641 for a constitutional initiative.
“Five measures have already surpassed the 25 percent mark in signature collection, with the Local Taxpayer Protection Act to Save Prop. 13 facing the earliest deadline on February 25. Another ten-plus initiatives, however, are in a sprint to meet the April 17 deadline to submit signatures and qualify for the November ballot.
“But what about the June ballot? Only legislatively referred measures are eligible, and the deadline for lawmakers to place items on that ballot is January 22.
“Tom Ross and Tino Rossi will discuss these developments and more during a Ballot Initiative Update on Monday, January 27, at 11:00 a.m. Register Today.”
Small business owners interested in contracting with California can attend an online event hosted by Department of General Services on January 20 about how to become certified as Small Business (SB) or Disabled Veteran Business Enterprise (DVBE).
Key dates highlighted include legislative recesses between March 26-April 6 and July 2-August 3; primary elections on June 2; last day for bills to pass their house of origin May 29; new state budget deadline June 15; session adjournment August 31; last day for governor action September 30.
Nationally focused updates included NFIB urging Congress to pass legislation addressing credit card fees impacting small businesses. NFIB President Brad Close stated: “Small business owners pay exorbitant fees just to be able to accept credit cards from their customers and those costs have skyrocketed, becoming one of the top expenses small businesses manage each month.” President Trump voiced support for this bill via social media while Senator Dick Durbin cited examples involving NFIB members during Senate remarks.
NFIB also submitted testimony supporting bipartisan efforts like REPAIR Act before Congress aimed at strengthening motor vehicle safety regulations affecting small businesses’ operational efficiency. Louis Bertolotti commented: “Each second spent driving to a dealership or waiting for a repair is time not spent growing a business… In today’s fast-paced economy, small businesses simply cannot afford to waste these resources.”
The National Federation of Independent Business – California continues its advocacy work representing over 35,000 small business owners statewide, offering resources such as legislative updates through its website (NFIB California). The organization remains engaged in policy issues affecting economic opportunities across California while providing tools intended to help members stay informed about regulatory changes (official website).
The next Main Street Minute update will be available January 19 via NFIB’s online platform.
