Golden State Today

Millennials and Gen Z face existential risks unknown to previous generations. The Berkeley Institute for Young Americans reports that these voters — left, center, and right — want political action to address the challenges.

Young voters from the millennial generation and Gen Z are emerging as the demographic center of power in American politics, but new studies by UC Berkeley researchers find they are fatalistic about critical problems such as economic inequality, climate change, and the future of democracy.

Younger voters had a broad, decisive impact on the 2020 presidential election and congressional elections in 2018 and 2022, according to research released today by the Berkeley Institute for Young Americans (BIFYA). Now, with the 2024 presidential election just months away, the institute’s analysis raises concerns about possibly low turnout among young voters in November.

Two new studies offer a detailed look at the social values and political behaviors of voters aged 18-43 — providing insights into their generational zeitgeist. Some findings diverge sharply from prevailing stereotypes about the political behavior of young voters.

The institute reports that the values of Gen Z and millennial voters across the political spectrum are converging toward agreement on key issues. However, researchers found a substantial generation gap in American politics: Both young liberals and young conservatives want effective government action to solve challenges while their parents and grandparents have been in conflict for a half-century over the role of government.

At the same time, many young voters appear to share a belief that fractured, dysfunctional government systems are incapable of addressing critical challenges that fall heavily on their generations. A sense of fatalism extends across the right, center, and left, according to researchers.

“Millennials and Gen Zers are generations unlike any other because of the risks they face,” said Erin Heys, the institute’s policy director and senior researcher. “From the housing crisis to climate change threats and AI developments, young people feel hopeless about these challenges and disillusioned with an unresponsive political system.”

“In this pivotal election year, whether or not young people decide to vote could very well decide the outcome,” said Sarah Swanbeck, BIFYA’s executive director. “These new papers give us an important first glimpse into one factor that could affect whether or not young people turn up at polls: their increasing feeling of fatalism.”

The Berkeley institute was founded in 2015 to understand younger generations' unique challenges better and develop public policy interventions needed to solve them. It is affiliated with Berkeley’s Goldman School of Public Policy.

The institute’s new research comes at a generational inflection point in U.S. politics. Incumbent President Joe Biden is 81 years old, while his challenger former President Donald Trump is 78. The 2024 election will likely represent an end era where politicians from World War II and post-war generations dominated U.S. political leadership.

By some measures, millennials and Gen Z voters will account for half of the electorate by 2028. Millions of young Gen Zers will be eligible to vote for the first time this year.

As a group, those tens of millions face risks older generations could scarcely imagine: extreme economic inequality, climate change impacts; warp-speed technological changes shaking political/economic stability globally.

The Berkeley research finds disillusionment because older generations failed to address those problems—seemingly handing them off instead.

How will younger voters respond?

While they have numbers determining election outcomes—the new BIFYA study points out other research showing young conservatives defecting from Republicans as millions disconnect from Democrats.

Many are so disillusioned opting out politically altogether—a concern underscored by UC Berkeley Institute Governmental Studies (IGS) poll finding many—especially younger ones—may stay home Election Day due dislike choices.

But institute's research concludes changing generations may create conditions younger elected leaders putting aside warfare seeking instead ideas solving problems.

Berkeley institute's new research comes two working papers exploring complex factors shaping attitudes/behavior; additional papers planned release coming months.

In study "Generational Values Political Participation Recent U.S Elections," Heys describes millennials/Gen Zers contingent "fundamentally different" earlier ones enduring Sept11 attacks Great Recession witnessing Barack Obama's first Black president Trump whose MAGA allies attempted overturning forcefully contributing movements Occupy Wall Street Black Lives Matter COVID pandemic lasting cultural imprint decisively liberal egalitarian critical view flaws democracy unequal wealth/power distribution indeed she found values among conservatives/liberals more "homogenous" than older ones changing value structure playing out attitudes holding more liberal views racial equality climate universal health care abortion fewer growing up conservative households now considering themselves Republicans trend similar Democratic Party dissatisfaction status quo widespread translating sense fatalism thinking much outside control pessimistic futures fate country believing American Dream once true no longer within reach expands themes "Cultural Evolution Measuring Differences Generational Values."

Evidence accumulating years "young people ideological spectrum tolerant open-minded backgrounds supporting progressive policy issues," Heys writes key finding believing "government should do more solving society's problems even higher taxes all," failure addressing directly affecting lives fueling pervasive trends uniform skew individualism women leaning egalitarian values people color trending individualism less collective orientation what's impact interviews choosing not voting disillusioned taken over special interests thinking representing responding risks everyday lives clear troubling implications November future elections still leaders see path hope healing rising power encouraged aligned value structure elders meaning becoming dominant electoral force coalescing around ideas solving pressing problems happening candidates engaging inspiring offering antidote dread real solutions existential threats grappling