Golden State Today

UC Berkeley scholars say President Joe Biden’s departure from the race could expand Democrats’ base. But the outcome may turn on whether they can craft a message that will ease race and gender tensions and galvanize young voters.

By Edward Lempinen

July 22, 2024

It is a moment of extraordinary significance in U.S. political history: Joe Biden, 81 years old and seemingly frail, is stepping away from his campaign less than four months before the election. He has endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, 59, who would be the first Black, Asian-American woman ever to lead the nation. Democrats have quickly rallied behind her.

Scholars at UC Berkeley are unanimous that the election has been transformed and that the Democrats’ change of candidates will have vast but unpredictable implications for the campaign. The impact could play out not just in the horse race with Donald Trump and GOP vice presidential candidate J.D. Vance but in the courts, in simmering cultural tensions over race relations and gender roles, in efforts to engage young voters, and in the health of U.S. democracy.

In the hours after Biden’s announcement, some of Berkeley’s top political scholars offered their analysis and insights.

Biden’s decision transforms the election. There is little question that he was significantly behind former President Trump, and prospects for making up that ground were dim once debate greatly exacerbated preexisting concerns about Biden's age.

“Democrats have had a serious enthusiasm problem looking ahead to November,” said Eric Schickler, political scientist and co-director of the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies. “Biden’s departure gives an opening for the party to nominate a candidate who is better positioned to mobilize those with unfavorable views of both current and former presidents.”

Schickler also noted that Biden’s decision will reverberate in congressional races: “Every Democratic candidate for Congress was going to face ongoing questions about the president’s ability to serve a second term.” With those questions now off the table, Democratic candidates can focus on what Donald Trump and a GOP Congress might do if elected.

Henry Brady, former dean of UC Berkeley Goldman School of Public Policy, commented on public sentiment following Biden's withdrawal: “I believe many Americans will feel a tremendous sense of relief.” He added that this move could inspire confidence among both committed Democrats and independents wary of Trump's leadership style.

Lisa García Bedolla emphasized reengagement opportunities for weak partisans: "This moment gives Democrats a chance to shift narrative... What voters want is someone willing to address big issues like inflation." She stressed Americans' desire for tangible solutions over polished campaigns.

David C. Wilson addressed potential racial dynamics: "Harris as presumptive nominee will likely raise legitimate questions... The media should focus on her merits as San Francisco district attorney," noting she has more experience than Trump or Vance combined.

M. Steven Fish highlighted Harris's need to distinguish herself: “To maximize her chances... Harris must move past banalities about controlling prescription drug prices.” Instead, she should project strength against Trump's record.

Dan Schnur spoke on internal party dynamics: "The biggest question is whether Democrats want an open nomination process or one appearing open but isn't." He suggested Harris needs substantial support quickly to avoid intra-party challenges.

Emily Rong Zhang discussed legal perspectives on Biden's withdrawal: "A legal challenge...is very unlikely." She explained parties have significant leeway in internal affairs unless discriminatory actions occur during candidate selection processes.

Jake Grumbach commented on age factors influencing elections: "Kamala Harris at 59 is around average age for Congress members," which might appeal electorally given voter preference for younger politicians compared with older contenders like Trump.

Sarah Swanbeck pointed out youth engagement potential under new leadership: "Whether this translates into large turnout depends if new nominee convinces young voters through credible plans addressing climate change."

Overall consensus among UC Berkeley scholars suggests while risks exist amid unprecedented changes leading up towards elections — particularly surrounding issues concerning demographics along lines involving ethnicity/gender — opportunities arise simultaneously allowing reshaping narratives positively engaging broader electorate spectrum potentially enhancing democratic processes moving forward within context contemporary socio-political landscape United States today amidst evolving global challenges future ahead remains uncertain yet hopeful given circumstances present moment historical significance transformative nature recent developments unfolding rapidly before us all collectively witnessing firsthand impactful decisions shaping destiny nation together forging path progress unity resilience perseverance commitment ideals shared vision common good prosperity equity justice freedom liberty enduring legacy generations come thereafter...