John Lettieri, President and CEO of Economic Innovation Group | Official Website
John Lettieri, President and CEO of Economic Innovation Group | Official Website
Among California’s counties, Alpine County saw the largest increase in transfer dependency over the past 10 years, surging 8.4% from 18.3% in 2012 to 26.7% in 2022, and up 15.4% from just 11.3% in 1970. In dollar terms, government transfers per capita in Alpine County jumped from $12,662 in 2012 to $18,056 in 2022, a stark contrast to the $2,947 recorded in 1970.
Lassen County followed with the second-largest increase in transfer dependency, increasing 8.3% from 23.5% in 2012 to 31.8% in 2022, and an overall increase of 20.8% from 1970’s 11% transfer dependency. This trend is reflected in per capita amounts, with residents of Lassen County receiving an average of $12,950 in transfer income in 2022, up from $8,094 in 2012 and more than $2,947 recorded in 1970.
Additionally, Trinity County had the highest percentage of income derived from government transfers, at 41.1% in 2022, making it the county with the highest overall transfer dependency. Del Norte County and Modoc County followed closely behind, with transfer dependency rates of 39.3% and 37.2% in 2022, respectively.
Compared to 1970, Trinity County increased by 27.6%, while Del Norte County and Modoc County have increased by 26% and 26.4%, respectively, showing sustained reliance on government transfers. Residents in Trinity County received an average of $14,925 in transfers per capita, with Del Norte County and Modoc County close behind at $17,166 and $21,063, respectively.
For comparison, the statewide average was 15.5% in 2022, showing a lower dependency than the national average of 17.6%. On a per capita level, this translates to $11,927 per resident in 2022, compared to $11,542 nationwide.
Government transfer payments are non-repayable funds provided by federal, state, or local governments to support individuals in need. These payments aim to stabilize economic conditions and provide financial support during hardships. Key programs include Social Security transfers (retirement benefits), Medicare transfers (healthcare for seniors), Medicaid transfers (healthcare for low-income individuals), and income maintenance transfers (financial assistance for basic needs).
In California, reliance on government transfers was just 8.9% (or $2,600 per capita in inflation-adjusted 2022 dollars) in 1970. This has since increased to 15.5% (or $11,927 per capita) in 2022, reflecting a total increase of 6.6% since 1970. This shift is largely influenced by increased healthcare costs, and economic transformations that have reshaped income sources across the U.S.
In 2022, the primary government transfer programs in California included:
- Social Security: $2,936 (24.6% of total transfers)
- Medicare: $2,685 (22.5% of total transfers)
- Medicaid: $3,179 (26.7% of total transfers)
- Income Maintenance Programs: $1,741 (14.6% of total transfers)
With 15.7% of the population aged 65 and older, California has a significant demand for programs like Social Security and Medicare. However, counties with higher poverty rates also show elevated Medicaid and income maintenance participation.
Government transfers have long been a modest financial safety net, historically comprising only a small fraction of Americans' income. However, since the 1970s—sometimes dubbed the “Great Transfer-mation”—dependency has surged from 8.2% (or $2,022 per capita in inflation-adjusted 2022 dollars) in 1970 to 17.6% (or $11,542 per capita) in 2022 nationwide. In California, reliance on government transfers has similarly increased from 8.9% (or $2,600 per capita) in 1970 to 15.5% (or $11,927 per capita) in 2022.
According to the Economic Innovation Group’s analysis, these trends are not merely short-term responses to economic pressures but rather reflect a profound, long-term transformation in how government support is integrated into American life. The study illustrates that structural shifts—from rising healthcare expenses and demographic changes to stagnant wages—have significantly increased dependency on government transfers.
| County | Dependency on Transfers (%) | Change Since 2012 | Change Since 1970 | Per Capita Amount (2022) | Per Capita Change Since 2012 | Per Capita Change Since 1970 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alameda County | 11.9% | -1.3% | 2.9% | $11,610 | $3,163 | $8,946 |
| Alpine County | 26.7% | 8.4% | 15.4% | $18,056 | $5,394 | $15,109 |
| Amador County | 28.8% | 4.1% | 17.4% | $13,970 | $3,156 | $11,057 |
| Butte County | 27.6% | 1.3% | 11.7% | $15,156 | $3,993 | $11,677 |
| Calaveras County | 27.7% | 2% | 14.8% | $15,514 | $3,715 | $12,514 |
| Colusa County | 20% | 1.3% | 12.4% | $11,121 | $2,711 | $8,573 |
| Contra Costa County | 11.8% | 0.8% | 4.3% | $11,203 | $2,983 | $8,834 |
| Del Norte County | 39.3% | 6.1% | 26% | $17,166 | $5,525 | $14,024 |
| El Dorado County | 15.1% | 1.4% | 4.4% | $12,405 | $3,574 | $9,472 |
| Fresno County | 25.8% | 2.3% | 12.6% | $13,015 | $3,418 | $9,929 |
| Glenn County | 27.7% | 4.7% | 16.9% | $14,158 | $4,297 | $11,486 |
| Humboldt County | 27.1% | 3.6% | 14.9% | $14,667 | $4,212 | $11,714 |
| Imperial County | 29.8% | 5.4% | 17.8% | $13,476 | $4,071 | $10,661 |
| Inyo County | 25.1% | 4.6% | 13.5% | $15,433 | $4,052 | $12,614 |
| Kern County | 22.6% | 4% | 12.1% | $10,122 | $2,414 | $7,589 |
| Kings County | 23.9% | 3.2% | 13.7% | $10,173 | $2,899 | $7,777 |
| Lake County | 36.3% | 3.4% | 15.4% | $16,563 | $3,655 | $11,621 |
| Lassen County | 31.8% | 8.3% | 20.8% | $12,950 | $4,856 | $10,208 |
| Los Angeles County | 18.7% | 2.9% | 9.4% | $13,893 | $4,569 | $11,125 |
| Madera County | 23% | 1.3% | 7.4% | $10,676 | $2,429 | $7,214 |
| Marin County | 6.8% | -0.4% | 1.7% | $11,630 | $3,283 | $9,726 |
| Mariposa County | 27.4% | 1.7% | 16.2% | $16,803 | $4,937 | $13,707 |
| Mendocino County | 29.9% | 4.4% | 16.8% | $17,149 | $5,472 | $14,122 |
| Merced County | 27% | 1.9% | 16.1% | $12,461 | $3,156 | $9,828 |
| Modoc County | 37.2% | 6.8% | 26.4% | $21,063 | $7,537 | $18,226 |
| Mono County | 12.1% | 2.1% | 5.7% | $7,890 | $2,934 | $6,218 |
| Monterey County | 16.4% | 2% | 10% | $10,646 | $3,051 | $8,575 |
| Napa County | 14% | 0.5% | 4.3% | $12,121 | $3,393 | $9,401 |
| Nevada County | 19.9% | 2.4% | 4.5% | $14,479 | $4,013 | $10,792 |
| Orange County | 11.7% | 1% | 5.7% | $9,775 | $2,630 | $7,988 |
| Placer County | 13.5% | 0.5% | 2.2% | $11,070 | $2,705 | $8,033 |
| Plumas County | 31.2% | 3.4% | 16.4% | $18,548 | $5,217 | $14,678 |
| Riverside County | 19.8% | 0.8% | 8.2% | $10,171 | $2,505 | $7,090 |
| Sacramento County | 21.5% | 2.2% | 11.8% | $13,238 | $3,592 | $10,505 |
| San Benito County | 14.7% | -0.3% | 4.6% | $9,080 | $2,129 | $6,594 |
| San Bernardino County | 21.7% | 0.8% | 10.9% | $10,706 | $2,704 | $8,081 |
| San Diego County | 15% | 1.2% | 7.7% | $11,109 | $3,036 | $8,919 |
| San Francisco County | 8.4% | 0% | -1.3% | $13,025 | $4,153 | $9,299 |
| San Joaquin County | 23% | -0.4% | 11.6% | $12,478 | $2,800 | $9,547 |
| San Luis Obispo County | 16.8% | 1.9% | 3.8% | $11,393 | $3,431 | $8,441 |
| San Mateo County | 5.3% | -1% | -0.2% | $9,223 | $2,518 | $7,241 |
| Santa Barbara County | 13.6% | 1.6% | 6% | $10,320 | $2,929 | $8,072 |
| Santa Clara County | 6.6% | -1.4% | -0.3% | $9,529 | $2,535 | $7,476 |
| Santa Cruz County | 13.4% | 1.2% | 1.2% | $11,582 | $3,868 | $8,372 |
| Shasta County | 31.7% | 1.4% | 17.8% | $17,135 | $3,926 | $13,833 |
| Sierra County | 26.4% | 2% | 13.8% | $12,643 | $2,140 | $9,647 |
| Siskiyou County | 36.8% | 3.8% | 24.7% | $19,046 | $5,449 | $16,116 |
| Solano County | 20.8% | 3.3% | 12.6% | $12,097 | $3,715 | $9,914 |
| Sonoma County | 15.9% | 1% | 4.2% | $12,415 | $3,972 | $9,230 |
| Stanislaus County | 23.5% | 1.6% | 9.7% | $11,991 | $2,923 | $8,708 |
| Sutter County | 24.6% | 3.4% | 16.2% | $12,794 | $3,672 | $10,398 |
| Tehama County | 31.3% | 2.4% | 19% | $14,813 | $3,731 | $12,002 |
| Trinity County | 41.1% | 2.9% | 27.6% | $14,925 | $2,324 | $12,244 |
| Tulare County | 26.6% | 2.8% | 12.3% | $12,574 | $3,398 | $9,476 |
| Tuolumne County | 30.9% | 4.2% | 16.7% | $16,290 | $4,282 | $13,148 |
| Ventura County | 14.4% | 2% | 7.3% | $10,959 | $3,429 | $9,117 |
| Yolo County | 15.5% | 1.9% | 7.7% | $9,961 | $2,683 | $7,783 |
| Yuba County | 31.8% | 2.2% | 20.2% | $15,320 | $3,508 | $12,634 |
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